The US and China have entered a new phase in their relationship, characterised by long-term strategic competition. War is improbable. Neither the US nor China are likely to achieve their goals in their entirety. Nevertheless, the new strategic environment will be challenging, particularly for smaller states. Navigating the uncertainties will require the capacity for robust analysis, a clear understanding of national interests, and the political courage to pursue them with determination. Fatalism is disastrous to small states.