The covid-19 pandemic and the measures undertaken to stop it have wreaked havoc to the global economy and energy markets. Energy demand is hostage to global economic performance, and the economy has become hostage to the virus.
This discussion traces the likely medium term developments: how the hope of a V-shaped recovery is being replaced with the expectation of uneven developments across regions; and the hope for government help with the fear of inflation. What a slower recovery and low economic growth means for the global fuel mix and energy prices; why the pandemic is likely to accelerate peak oil demand; and the important changes this heralds for global oil markets and for the role of OPEC; and finally, how the GCC economies are likely to be affected by the double hit from low oil prices and an uncertain global economic outlook.
Our prospects for the medium term are not very optimistic. Even a vaccine is unlikely to completely erase the impact covid-19 has had on politics, economics and, not least, human behaviour.