Any discussion concerning the course of the Algerian state in the foreseeable future, particularly following the presidential elections due to be held in April, 2014, should begin with a review of the role of the military establishment and its relationship with politics — be it cooperative or antagonistic, insular or inclusive, and healthy or weak.

To understand the role and function of the army in Algerian political life, we must ask three fundamental questions:

• What does the recent political criticism of the military–security establishment in February indicate?
• Is the role of the army in Algerian politics likely to decline?
• What is the relationship between the presidency and parties on the one hand and the military on the other?

The answers to these questions will depend on three basic foundations:

1. The historical background of the Algerian army and its relationship with the authorities;
2. Legacy and orientation of its doctrine; and
3. What is declared – or undeclared – in the political discourse.

Discussing these key issues provide us with a number of predictions as to the course of developments in Algeria as well as regarding the power and legitimacy of the army going forward.